The first full week of May brings a multiday severe storm event. Storms are possible across the South Tuesday and Wednesday, with cities like Dallas and Baton Rouge able to see yet another round of storms in their area.
These areas were just some of the areas that got hit at the end of April, continuing the trend of the Central US seeing storms dating back to March.
(MORE:End Of April Recap Of Severe Weather Outbreak)
The Forecast
There is a lower threat of severe storms from northern Texas to southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio on Monday, which includes cities like Oklahoma City, Des Moines, Chicago, Indianapolis and Detroit. While the lower threat is widespread, the threat has increased for hail for cities like Kansas City and Springfield, Illinois.
What we are more concerned for is Tuesday and Wednesday.
For Tuesday, northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and much of Arkansas are in the bullseye for the strongest storms. That includes cities like Dallas and Shreveport. The main threast are very large hail gusty wind and a tornado or two.
On Wednesday, the threat spreads south and east, stretching from eastern Texas to northern Alabama. Cities like Houston, Shreveport, Jackson and Birmingham will need to stay weather aware.
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At this point, the main threats are looking to be large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.
The Setup
There are a couple of factors that are all coming together for this severe weather. We have a subtropical jet which is travelling across the southern U.S. This jet will help enhance moisture across the South.
There will also be a dip in the jet stream, known as a trough, coming over the Rockies. The conditions will be favorable for a low pressure system to form right in between these upper winds.
That trough will bring in unseasonably cool air while the subtropical jet will enhance the warm, moist air over the South. The clash of these air masses is a classic setup for May, the busiest month for tornadoes on average.
(MORE:What May Brings In Terms Of Weather)
Cool Air To Remain
The storm will drop the temperatures by about 10-20 degrees, bringing cool temperatures for much of the week. However, this cool air will not last very long as above average temperatures from the West will slowly shift east.
Rob Shackelfordis a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.